
Bangladesh in Crisis: 4 Months Since Outster of Sheikh Hasina Gov Political Vacuum After Sheikh Hasina’s Overthrow
On August 5, 2024, Bangladesh's Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned amid escalating mass protests, primarily led by
students opposing her government's policies. As demonstrators surrounded her
official residence, General Waker-uz-Zaman, the Chief of Army Staff, announced
her resignation. Subsequently, Hasina fled to India, departing first by car,
then by helicopter, and finally by plane, without delivering a resignation
speech.
Her ouster marked the end
of over a decade of political stability under her leadership. Hasina’s
governance was characterized by economic growth and strong bilateral ties with
India, which are now under threat.
The political vacuum has
allowed opposition parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP),
and radical Islamist factions to vie for power. The chaos resembles Pakistan’s
history of frequent regime changes, ideological conflicts, and social unrest.
Indian officials have expressed concern over the potential fallout, especially
regarding border security and trade relations.
Radical
Elements Gain Ground
Groups like Hefazat-e-Islam
have quickly risen to prominence amid the leadership void, advocating for
stricter Sharia laws and rolling back secular policies. The rise of these
radical elements threatens to unravel decades of progress in secularism and
women’s rights.
India’s northeastern
states, sharing porous borders with Bangladesh, are particularly vulnerable to
infiltration by radicalized individuals, posing a direct threat to regional
stability.
Economic
Stagnation Amid Instability
Once hailed as a
development success story, Bangladesh now faces severe economic challenges. Key
sectors, including textiles and exports, have been disrupted. Foreign
investors, unsettled by the instability, have started pulling out, further
exacerbating the economic decline. The interim government, led by
military-backed caretaker leaders, struggles to stabilize the economy.
For India, this decline
could disrupt cross-border trade, particularly in Assam, West Bengal, and
Tripura. Analysts warn that economic desperation in Bangladesh may lead to
increased illegal migration into India.
Military’s
Role in Governance
The interim government in
Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has been tasked with
restoring stability and preparing for elections by the end of 2025. This
transitional period aims to address the demands of protesters and facilitate a
democratic renewal in the country.
India’s experience with
military-led governments in neighboring Pakistan has shown how such regimes can
complicate diplomatic relations. New Delhi is monitoring developments closely
to assess the implications for Indo-Bangladeshi ties.
Minorities
Targeted Amid Turmoil
Reports of violence against
Hindu and Buddhist minorities have surged since the crisis began. In Chittagong
and Khulna, several temples were vandalized, and families forced to flee.
International human rights organizations have condemned these acts, urging the
interim government to ensure minority protection.
The targeting of minorities
could lead to an influx of refugees into India’s border states, posing
humanitarian and administrative challenges.
Cross-Border
Infiltration Rises
Indian intelligence
agencies have reported increased cross-border movement since the crisis
unfolded. Radical groups and displaced individuals are exploiting weak border
security, raising concerns of insurgency in the northeastern region. Border
Security Force (BSF) units have been placed on high alert.
Implications
for India
- Security Challenges: Heightened cross-border infiltration and the
rise of radical groups could strain India’s internal security and
counter-terrorism operations.
- Economic
Disruption: Reduced trade and economic instability in Bangladesh may
impact India’s export sectors and create supply chain disruptions.
- Humanitarian
Crisis: Increased refugee influx into India’s northeastern states could
strain resources and stoke tensions in sensitive regions.
- Geopolitical Risks: A destabilized Bangladesh might invite
influence from China, complicating India’s strategic position in South
Asia.
The overthrow of Sheikh
Hasina’s government has set Bangladesh on an uncertain and dangerous path. The
rise of radical elements, economic instability, and military dominance have
created a volatile environment reminiscent of Pakistan’s struggles. For
Bangladesh to avoid further descent, it must prioritize democratic restoration,
economic recovery, and the protection of minority rights.
India, as Bangladesh’s
closest neighbor, must remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding its
security and strategic interests while supporting efforts to stabilize the
region. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh
can navigate this crisis without long-term repercussions for itself and the
broader South Asian region.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of The Critical Script or its editor.

Newsletter!!!
Subscribe to our weekly Newsletter and stay tuned.
Related Comments